NYISO ICAP track record
Backtest, graded on settled NYISO load with weights that never saw the season being graded. The live 2026 record starts the day calls publish.
The hour to beat
2026, provisional, from observed hourly load- cp1Thu, Jul 231.1 GW6:00 PM ET
Any hotter business day through September 30 takes the slot. The ICAP tag your facility carries next year is your demand during whichever hour wins.
The miss
named, not buried- 2024-07-08 · NYISO's own 10 AM forecast said 28.0 GW, below the standing season bar of 28.2 — and the afternoon beat that forecast by nearly a gigawatt to set the peak. A forecast-margin model cannot flag a day whose own forecast says it will not enter the ladder; the flag-every-entrant baseline missed it for the same reason. It was also the tightest season in the sample: first beat second by 46 MW.
One hour a season is a less forgiving target than a top five: a near-miss day counts for nothing. This model flagged 22 days across four summers and caught three of the four peaks with 7.3 hours of average lead.
Every call
Flagged days and the true peak days from the 2022–2025 backtest, newest first. Correct rejections (quiet days called quiet) are not listed but count in precision.
| Date | Call | p | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026Live season1 day, 0 flagged | |||
| 2026-07-02 | — | — | In playthe month is still open · watch the replay |
| June 2026Live season1 day, 0 flagged | |||
| 2026-06-11 | — | — | Unscoredthe peak landed before we published calls · watch the replay |
| July 20253 days, 3 flagged | |||
| 2025-07-30 | ▲ WARNING | 88% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-29 | ▲ WARNING | 96% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-17 | ▲ WARNING | 55% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| June 20252 days, 2 flagged | |||
| 2025-06-24 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-06-23 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| August 20241 day, 1 flagged | |||
| 2024-08-01 | ▲ WARNING | 58% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| July 20243 days, 2 flagged | |||
| 2024-07-16 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-07-15 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-07-08 | ◇ CLEAR | 24% | Missthe month peak came on a day we did not flag · watch the replay |
| September 20231 day, 1 flagged | |||
| 2023-09-06 | ▲ WARNING | 62% | Hitwatch the replay |
| July 20235 days, 5 flagged | |||
| 2023-07-28 | ▲ WARNING | 95% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-27 | ▲ WARNING | 78% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-06 | ▲ WARNING | 50% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-05 | ▲ WARNING | 71% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-03 | ▲ WARNING | 70% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| August 20223 days, 3 flagged | |||
| 2022-08-09 | ▲ WARNING | 88% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-08-08 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-08-04 | ▲ WARNING | 90% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| July 20225 days, 5 flagged | |||
| 2022-07-22 | ▲ WARNING | 58% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-21 | ▲ WARNING | 83% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-20 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-07-19 | ▲ WARNING | 90% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-01 | ▲ WARNING | 81% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
A hit is a day flagged WARNING or higher that held the month's true peak, graded on official settlements. Live-season rows quote our strongest call that day and grade when the month closes.
Methodology, folds, and the survival math live on the methodology page. Live calls are hash-chained the moment they publish, same as ERCOT's and PJM's.