NYISO ICAP track record
Seasons before 2026 are graded on settled NYISO load, with model weights that never saw the season they grade. The live 2026 record starts the day calls publish.
The hour to beat
2026, provisional, from observed hourly load- cp1Thu, Jul 231.1 GW6:00 PM ET
Any hotter business day through September 30 takes the slot. The ICAP tag your facility carries next year is your demand during whichever hour wins.
The miss
named, not buried- 2024-07-08 · NYISO's own 10 AM forecast said 28.0 GW, below the standing season bar of 28.2, and the afternoon beat that forecast by nearly a gigawatt to set the peak. A forecast-margin model cannot flag a day whose own forecast says it will not enter the ladder. The flag-every-entrant baseline missed it for the same reason. It was also the tightest season in the sample: first beat second by 46 MW.
One hour a season is a less forgiving target than a top five: a near-miss day counts for nothing. This model flagged 22 days across four summers and caught three of the four peaks with 7.3 hours of average lead.
Every call
Flagged days and the true peak days from the graded seasons, 2022–2025, newest first. Correct rejections (quiet days called quiet) are not listed but count in precision.
| Date | Call | p | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026•Live Season6 days listed, 6 flagged | |||
| 2026-07-15 | ▲ WARNING | 95% | In playa hotter day can take the peak until the season closes · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-14 | ▲ WARNING | 55% | In playa hotter day can take the peak until the season closes · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-03 | ▲ WARNING | 97% | In playreplayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-02 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | In playcurrently the season peak · replayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-01 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | In playreplayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 2026-06-11 | ▲ WARNING | 97% | In playreplayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 20255 days listed, 5 flagged | |||
| 2025-07-30 | ▲ WARNING | 88% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-29 | ▲ WARNING | 96% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-17 | ▲ WARNING | 55% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2025-06-24 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-06-23 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 20244 days listed, 3 flagged | |||
| 2024-08-01 | ▲ WARNING | 58% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2024-07-16 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2024-07-15 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2024-07-08 | ◇ CLEAR | 24% | Missthe season's peak day went unflagged · watch the replay |
| 20236 days listed, 6 flagged | |||
| 2023-09-06 | ▲ WARNING | 62% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-07-28 | ▲ WARNING | 95% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-27 | ▲ WARNING | 78% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-06 | ▲ WARNING | 50% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-05 | ▲ WARNING | 71% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-03 | ▲ WARNING | 70% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 20228 days listed, 8 flagged | |||
| 2022-08-09 | ▲ WARNING | 88% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2022-08-08 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2022-08-04 | ▲ WARNING | 90% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-22 | ▲ WARNING | 58% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-21 | ▲ WARNING | 83% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-20 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-07-19 | ▲ WARNING | 90% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-01 | ▲ WARNING | 81% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the season peaked on another day · watch the replay |
A hit is a day flagged WARNING or higher that held the season's peak, graded on official data. Live-season rows quote our strongest call that day and grade when the season closes.
How the model is validated and the survival math live on the methodology page. Live calls are hash-chained the moment they publish, same as ERCOT's and PJM's.