Glossary
The language of grid peaks, in plain English. These same definitions power the tooltips across the product.
- 12CP
- A proposed successor to ERCOT's 4CP: allocate transmission costs over twelve monthly peaks instead of four summer ones.
- 4CP (Four Coincident Peaks)
- The four 15-minute intervals — one per summer month, June through September — when ERCOT system demand peaks. They set next year's transmission charges.
- ACTION alert
- WattMarkets' highest alert level: curtail now — the predicted peak interval is imminent.
- Backtest
- Running the current model against historical seasons to measure how it would have performed. Always labeled — never mixed with live calls.
- Battery storage (grid-scale)
- Utility-scale batteries that charge and discharge against price and peak signals — several GW now operate in ERCOT.
- Call-log hash chain
- Each logged call is hashed together with the previous one; published terminal hashes make silent history-editing detectable.
- Coincident peak
- Your facility's demand at the moment the whole grid peaks — not your own maximum. Transmission charges are allocated on it.
- Curtailment
- Deliberately reducing your facility's electric demand for a window of time — the action a peak alert exists to trigger.
- Demand response
- Programs and behavior where loads reduce consumption in response to grid conditions or price signals.
- ERCOT
- The Electric Reliability Council of Texas — grid operator for ~90% of Texas load, electrically isolated from the rest of the US.
- ISO / RTO
- Independent System Operator / Regional Transmission Organization — the entities that run wholesale grids and markets in the US.
- Load forecast
- ERCOT's published prediction of system demand, updated hourly — the cool dashed line on our charts.
- Load zone
- ERCOT settlement region for energy prices — not the same as a weather zone.
- NOIE
- Non-Opt-In Entity — a Texas municipal utility or co-op that hasn't joined retail competition; many actively chase 4CP.
- p_raw vs p_final
- p_raw is the peak probability before accounting for curtailment and batteries; p_final is after. Publishing both is the transparency feature.
- Peak demand
- The highest rate of electricity consumption over a period, measured in MW or GW.
- Prediction drivers
- The named inputs behind every WattMarkets probability — forecast max, month max, temp anomaly, curtailment and battery estimates.
- Public Scorecard
- WattMarkets' published record of every call — hits, misses, and false alarms, graded against official settled peaks.
- PUCT
- The Public Utility Commission of Texas — ERCOT's regulator, currently weighing the 4CP-to-12CP transition.
- Replay
- Re-running a real historical day through the live prediction pipeline, hour by hour — the trust machine.
- Sensitivity Lab
- The WattMarkets page where you adjust the model's inputs — curtailment, battery, temperature, forecast bias — and watch the probability respond instantly.
- Settlement interval
- The 15-minute block ERCOT uses to measure and bill demand; 4CP peaks are single settlement intervals.
- Stand-down
- The all-clear signal: today's peak risk has passed and curtailed loads can resume normal operation.
- TCOS (Transmission Cost of Service)
- The regulated revenue transmission owners collect; 4CP shares determine who pays what portion of it.
- Temperature anomaly
- How far today's temperature sits above or below the seasonal normal — the strongest single peak driver.
- WATCH / WARNING
- WattMarkets' escalation levels: WATCH = elevated day-ahead risk; WARNING = high day-of risk.
- Weather zone
- One of eight ERCOT regions with similar climate, defined by ZIP code, used for load reporting and forecasting.