PJM 5CP track record
18 of 20 CPs flagged, 2022–202536 flagged days vs the blanket rule's 86avg lead 6.7hprecision 50%
Seasons before 2026 are graded on settled PJM load, with model weights that never saw the season they grade. The live 2026 record starts the day calls publish.
The five that count so far
2026, provisional, from observed hourly load- cp1Thu, Jul 2162.2 GW5:00 PM ET
- cp2Wed, Jul 1161.6 GW5:00 PM ET
- cp3Wed, Jul 15158.7 GW5:00 PM ET
- cp4Fri, Jul 3154.4 GW5:00 PM ET
- cp5Thu, Jul 16153.8 GW5:00 PM ET
A new hot business day can knock the fifth slot out until September 30. PJM's official determination lands mid-October and uses unrestricted peaks, which add back estimated demand response. A heavy curtailment day can rank differently there than in observed load.
The two misses
named, not buried- 2023-07-05 · The day after July 4 in the mildest of the four summers. A 138 GW day only makes the top five when a season never gets hot, and the model scored it 15%. The hardest case in the problem.
- 2022-08-08 · Squeaked into the top five by 1.3 GW. Scored 27%, which is above the WATCH line. A customer treating WATCH as "pay attention" saw 19 of 20.
The blanket alternative, flagging every day that would enter the top five, catches all 20 at the cost of 86 flagged days. This model asks for 36.
Every call
Flagged days and CP days from the graded seasons, 2022–2025, newest first. Correct rejections (quiet days called quiet) are not listed but count in precision.
| Date | Call | p | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026•Live Season9 days listed, 9 flagged | |||
| 2026-07-16 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | In playcurrently cp5 · the season's top five can change until the season closes · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-15 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | In playcurrently cp3 · the season's top five can change until the season closes · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-14 | ▲ WARNING | 97% | In playthe season's top five can change until the season closes · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-03 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | In playcurrently cp4 · replayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-02 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | In playcurrently cp1 · replayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-01 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | In playcurrently cp2 · replayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 2026-06-30 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | In playreplayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 2026-06-29 | ▲ WARNING | 71% | In playreplayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 2026-06-11 | ▲ WARNING | 97% | In playreplayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 202512 days listed, 12 flagged | |||
| 2025-07-30 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-29 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-07-28 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-07-25 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-24 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-17 | ▲ WARNING | 76% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-16 | ▲ WARNING | 60% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-15 | ▲ WARNING | 66% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2025-06-26 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2025-06-25 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-06-24 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-06-23 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 202412 days listed, 12 flagged | |||
| 2024-08-28 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-08-27 | ▲ WARNING | 96% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2024-08-05 | ▲ WARNING | 86% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2024-08-01 | ▲ WARNING | 90% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-07-31 | ▲ WARNING | 69% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2024-07-16 | ▲ WARNING | 86% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-07-15 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-07-08 | ▲ WARNING | 82% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2024-06-21 | ▲ WARNING | 82% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-06-20 | ▲ WARNING | 64% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2024-06-18 | ▲ WARNING | 93% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2024-06-17 | ▲ WARNING | 76% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 20236 days listed, 5 flagged | |||
| 2023-09-06 | ▲ WARNING | 91% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-09-05 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-07-28 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-07-27 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-07-26 | ▲ WARNING | 88% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-05 | ◇ CLEAR | 15% | Missa CP day we did not flag · watch the replay |
| 20228 days listed, 7 flagged | |||
| 2022-08-08 | △ WATCH | 27% | Missa CP day we did not flag · watch the replay |
| 2022-08-03 | ▲ WARNING | 51% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-07-22 | ▲ WARNING | 80% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-07-21 | ▲ WARNING | 96% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-07-20 | ▲ WARNING | 97% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-06-16 | ▲ WARNING | 53% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2022-06-15 | ▲ WARNING | 93% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
| 2022-06-14 | ▲ WARNING | 93% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the day finished outside the season's top five · watch the replay |
A hit is a day flagged WARNING or higher that finished in the season's top five, graded on official data. Live-season rows quote our strongest call that day and grade when the season closes.
How the model is validated and the survival math live on the methodology page. Live calls are hash-chained the moment they publish, same as ERCOT's.