PJM 5CP track record
Backtest, graded on settled PJM load with weights that never saw the season being graded. The live 2026 record starts the day calls publish.
The five that count so far
2026, provisional, from observed hourly load- cp1Thu, Jul 2162.2 GW5:00 PM ET
- cp2Wed, Jul 1161.6 GW5:00 PM ET
- cp3Tue, Jun 30149.7 GW5:00 PM ET
- cp4Thu, Jun 11144.9 GW5:00 PM ET
- cp5Mon, Jun 29144.2 GW5:00 PM ET
A new hot business day can knock the fifth slot out until September 30. PJM's official determination lands mid-October and uses unrestricted peaks, which add back estimated demand response — a heavy curtailment day can rank differently there than in observed load.
The two misses
named, not buried- 2023-07-05 · The day after July 4 in the mildest of the four summers. A 138 GW day only makes the top five when a season never gets hot, and the model scored it 15%. The hardest case in the problem.
- 2022-08-08 · Squeaked into the top five by 1.3 GW. Scored 27%, which is above the WATCH line — a customer treating WATCH as "pay attention" saw 19 of 20.
The blanket alternative, flagging every day that would enter the top five, catches all 20 at the cost of 86 flagged days. This model asks for 36.
Every call
Flagged days and CP days from the 2022–2025 backtest, newest first. Correct rejections (quiet days called quiet) are not listed but count in precision.
| Date | Call | p | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026Live season1 day, 0 flagged | |||
| 2026-07-02 | — | — | In playthe month is still open · watch the replay |
| June 2026Live season1 day, 0 flagged | |||
| 2026-06-30 | — | — | Unscoredthe peak landed before we published calls · watch the replay |
| July 20258 days, 8 flagged | |||
| 2025-07-30 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-29 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-07-28 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-07-25 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-24 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-17 | ▲ WARNING | 76% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-16 | ▲ WARNING | 60% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-15 | ▲ WARNING | 66% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| June 20254 days, 4 flagged | |||
| 2025-06-26 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-06-25 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-06-24 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-06-23 | ▲ WARNING | 100% | Hitwatch the replay |
| August 20244 days, 4 flagged | |||
| 2024-08-28 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-08-27 | ▲ WARNING | 96% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-08-05 | ▲ WARNING | 86% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-08-01 | ▲ WARNING | 90% | Hitwatch the replay |
| July 20244 days, 4 flagged | |||
| 2024-07-31 | ▲ WARNING | 69% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-07-16 | ▲ WARNING | 86% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-07-15 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-07-08 | ▲ WARNING | 82% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| June 20244 days, 4 flagged | |||
| 2024-06-21 | ▲ WARNING | 82% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-06-20 | ▲ WARNING | 64% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-06-18 | ▲ WARNING | 93% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-06-17 | ▲ WARNING | 76% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| September 20232 days, 2 flagged | |||
| 2023-09-06 | ▲ WARNING | 91% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-09-05 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| July 20234 days, 3 flagged | |||
| 2023-07-28 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-07-27 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-07-26 | ▲ WARNING | 88% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-05 | ◇ CLEAR | 15% | Missthe month peak came on a day we did not flag · watch the replay |
| August 20222 days, 1 flagged | |||
| 2022-08-08 | △ WATCH | 27% | Missthe month peak came on a day we did not flag · watch the replay |
| 2022-08-03 | ▲ WARNING | 51% | Hitwatch the replay |
| July 20223 days, 3 flagged | |||
| 2022-07-22 | ▲ WARNING | 80% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-07-21 | ▲ WARNING | 96% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-07-20 | ▲ WARNING | 97% | Hitwatch the replay |
| June 20223 days, 3 flagged | |||
| 2022-06-16 | ▲ WARNING | 53% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-06-15 | ▲ WARNING | 93% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-06-14 | ▲ WARNING | 93% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
A hit is a day flagged WARNING or higher that held the month's true peak, graded on official settlements. Live-season rows quote our strongest call that day and grade when the month closes.
Methodology, folds, and the survival math live on the methodology page. Live calls are hash-chained the moment they publish, same as ERCOT's.