Peak ledger
Friday, July 3, 2026
Our call
◇ 15%
CLEAR · window 2:00 PM CT–5:00 PM CT
the chance the day would set July's peak
The day
82.1 GW
max at 5:45 PM CT
Outcome
RANK 20
beaten, the month leader is 91.2 GW
What was behind the 15%
- Forecast max
- 83.3 GW
- Month max
- 81.7 GW
- Margin
- 1.5 GW
- Temp anomaly
- -0.8 °F
- Est. curtailment
- 1.5 GW
- Est. battery
- -0.2 GW
- p (raw)
- 39%
- p (final)
- 15%
model mercury-1.0.0 · computed 11:55 PM CT · stress-test these drivers →
This day ranks #20 of 31 observed days this month. Watch the replay → · See the full month ladder →
All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".