The ERCOT 4CP track record
Every call is logged when it's made and graded when the month settles.
15 of 16
peaks caught
82
days flagged · blanket 105
6h
average lead
134h
false alerts · blanket 178h
Seasons before 2026 are replays on settled ERCOT data — ERCOT publishes no forecast archive, so replayed days score against the day's settled numbers. The live season grades on the morning's real forecasts.
Summer 2026
live calls since 2026-07-03 · provisional until the market settles Unscored
No calls yet published
82.8 GW
the 18th held the peak · 4:00 PM CT · provisional
Flagged
Called 40.7h ahead
91.2 GW
the 22nd held the peak · 4:45 PM CT · provisional
Every call
the live season and every graded call, newest first| Date | Call | p | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026Live season7 days listed, 6 flagged | |||
| 2026-08-24 | ◇ CLEAR | 15% | In playthe month is still open · watch the replay |
| 2026-08-23 | ▲ WARNING | 59% | In playthe month is still open · watch the replay |
| 2026-08-21 | ▲ WARNING | 70% | In playthe month is still open · watch the replay |
| 2026-08-17 | ▲ WARNING | 56% | In playthe month is still open · watch the replay |
| 2026-08-04 | ▲ WARNING | 61% | In playthe month is still open · watch the replay |
| 2026-08-03 | ▲ WARNING | 79% | In playthe month is still open · watch the replay |
| 2026-08-02 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | In playthe month is still open · watch the replay |
| July 2026Live season4 days listed, 4 flagged | |||
| 2026-07-22 | ▲ WARNING | 92% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2026-07-21 | ▲ WARNING | 90% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-20 | ▲ WARNING | 66% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2026-07-01 | ▲ WARNING | 85% | Before coveragereplayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| June 2026Live season2 days listed, 2 flagged | |||
| 2026-06-18 | ▲ WARNING | 86% | Before coveragereplayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| 2026-06-01 | ▲ WARNING | 86% | Before coveragereplayed on settled data after the fact — not an issued call · watch the replay |
| September 20253 days listed, 3 flagged | |||
| 2025-09-04 | ▲ WARNING | 92% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-09-02 | ▲ WARNING | 62% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-09-01 | ▲ WARNING | 66% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| August 20252 days listed, 2 flagged | |||
| 2025-08-18 | ▲ WARNING | 67% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-08-01 | ▲ WARNING | 81% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| July 20257 days listed, 7 flagged | |||
| 2025-07-30 | ▲ WARNING | 89% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-07-29 | ▲ WARNING | 87% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-24 | ▲ WARNING | 86% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-23 | ▲ WARNING | 83% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-22 | ▲ WARNING | 71% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-21 | ▲ WARNING | 70% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-07-01 | ▲ WARNING | 73% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| June 20253 days listed, 3 flagged | |||
| 2025-06-19 | ▲ WARNING | 63% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2025-06-02 | ▲ WARNING | 56% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2025-06-01 | ▲ WARNING | 55% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| September 20245 days listed, 5 flagged | |||
| 2024-09-19 | ▲ WARNING | 84% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-09-18 | ▲ WARNING | 78% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-09-17 | ▲ WARNING | 65% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-09-16 | ▲ WARNING | 64% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-09-13 | ▲ WARNING | 77% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| August 20247 days listed, 7 flagged | |||
| 2024-08-20 | ▲ WARNING | 89% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-08-19 | ▲ WARNING | 90% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-08-08 | ▲ WARNING | 70% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-08-07 | ▲ WARNING | 75% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-08-06 | ▲ WARNING | 56% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-08-02 | ▲ WARNING | 55% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-08-01 | ▲ WARNING | 65% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| July 20241 day listed, 1 flagged | |||
| 2024-07-01 | ▲ WARNING | 77% | Hitwatch the replay |
| June 20247 days listed, 7 flagged | |||
| 2024-06-30 | ▲ WARNING | 78% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2024-06-28 | ▲ WARNING | 88% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-06-27 | ▲ WARNING | 87% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-06-25 | ▲ WARNING | 85% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-06-24 | ▲ WARNING | 79% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-06-07 | ▲ WARNING | 50% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2024-06-04 | ▲ WARNING | 56% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| September 20236 days listed, 6 flagged | |||
| 2023-09-08 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-09-07 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-09-06 | ▲ WARNING | 97% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-09-05 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-09-04 | ▲ WARNING | 93% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-09-01 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| August 202311 days listed, 11 flagged | |||
| 2023-08-25 | ▲ WARNING | 63% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-08-24 | ▲ WARNING | 59% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-08-21 | ▲ WARNING | 56% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-08-18 | ▲ WARNING | 70% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-08-17 | ▲ WARNING | 71% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-08-11 | ▲ WARNING | 58% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-08-10 | ▲ WARNING | 98% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-08-09 | ▲ WARNING | 53% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-08-07 | ▲ WARNING | 90% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-08-03 | ▲ WARNING | 83% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-08-01 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| July 20238 days listed, 8 flagged | |||
| 2023-07-31 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-07-19 | ▲ WARNING | 56% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-18 | ▲ WARNING | 97% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-17 | ▲ WARNING | 95% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-12 | ▲ WARNING | 95% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-10 | ▲ WARNING | 74% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-03 | ▲ WARNING | 72% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-07-01 | ▲ WARNING | 74% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| June 20239 days listed, 9 flagged | |||
| 2023-06-29 | ▲ WARNING | 56% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-06-28 | ▲ WARNING | 66% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-06-27 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2023-06-26 | ▲ WARNING | 99% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-06-20 | ▲ WARNING | 97% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-06-19 | ▲ WARNING | 98% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-06-15 | ▲ WARNING | 92% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-06-11 | ▲ WARNING | 71% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2023-06-09 | ▲ WARNING | 80% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| September 20221 day listed, 0 flagged | |||
| 2022-09-20 | ◇ CLEAR | 2% | Missthe month peak came on a day we did not flag · watch the replay |
| August 20222 days listed, 2 flagged | |||
| 2022-08-02 | ▲ WARNING | 53% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-08-01 | ▲ WARNING | 72% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| July 20226 days listed, 6 flagged | |||
| 2022-07-20 | ▲ WARNING | 90% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-07-19 | ▲ WARNING | 89% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-18 | ▲ WARNING | 86% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-12 | ▲ WARNING | 70% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-08 | ▲ WARNING | 63% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-07-05 | ▲ WARNING | 66% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| June 20225 days listed, 5 flagged | |||
| 2022-06-23 | ▲ WARNING | 82% | Hitwatch the replay |
| 2022-06-20 | ▲ WARNING | 83% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-06-16 | ▲ WARNING | 66% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-06-12 | ▲ WARNING | 70% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
| 2022-06-11 | ▲ WARNING | 61% | False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay |
A hit is a day flagged WARNING or higher that held the month's true peak, graded on official settlements. Live-season rows quote our strongest call that day and grade when the month closes.
Calls are hashed when they're made and graded on settlements. Verify the chain · the method · pick your own threshold