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The ERCOT 4CP track record

Every call, logged when it's made and graded when the month settles. Misses included.

15 of 16
peaks caught
82
days flagged · blanket 105
6h
average lead
134h
false alerts · blanket 178h
2022 to 2025, settled

Summer 2026

provisional until the market settles

Jun 2026

82.6 GW
the 18th held the peak
  1. 1882.6
  2. 2682.2
  3. 3082.1
  4. 2482.1
  5. 2982.1
  6. 2282.1

Jul 2026

21 days left
In play
Leader arrived unflagged
83.3 GW
the 6th leads so far · 4:20 PM CT · provisional
  1. 683.3
  2. 983.3
  3. 883.2
  4. 783.0
  5. 482.4
  6. 382.1

Every call

the live season and every graded call, newest first
DateCallpOutcome
July 2026Live season1 day, 0 flagged
2026-07-06◇ CLEAR10%In playthe month is still open · watch the replay
June 2026Live season1 day, 0 flagged
2026-06-18——Unscoredthe peak landed before we published calls · watch the replay
September 20253 days, 3 flagged
2025-09-04▲ WARNING92%Hitwatch the replay
2025-09-02▲ WARNING62%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2025-09-01▲ WARNING66%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
August 20252 days, 2 flagged
2025-08-18▲ WARNING67%Hitwatch the replay
2025-08-01▲ WARNING81%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
July 20257 days, 7 flagged
2025-07-30▲ WARNING89%Hitwatch the replay
2025-07-29▲ WARNING87%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2025-07-24▲ WARNING86%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2025-07-23▲ WARNING83%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2025-07-22▲ WARNING71%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2025-07-21▲ WARNING70%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2025-07-01▲ WARNING73%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
June 20253 days, 3 flagged
2025-06-19▲ WARNING63%Hitwatch the replay
2025-06-02▲ WARNING56%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2025-06-01▲ WARNING55%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
September 20245 days, 5 flagged
2024-09-19▲ WARNING84%Hitwatch the replay
2024-09-18▲ WARNING78%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-09-17▲ WARNING65%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-09-16▲ WARNING64%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-09-13▲ WARNING77%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
August 20247 days, 7 flagged
2024-08-20▲ WARNING89%Hitwatch the replay
2024-08-19▲ WARNING90%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-08-08▲ WARNING70%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-08-07▲ WARNING75%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-08-06▲ WARNING56%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-08-02▲ WARNING55%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-08-01▲ WARNING65%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
July 20241 day, 1 flagged
2024-07-01▲ WARNING77%Hitwatch the replay
June 20247 days, 7 flagged
2024-06-30▲ WARNING78%Hitwatch the replay
2024-06-28▲ WARNING88%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-06-27▲ WARNING87%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-06-25▲ WARNING85%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-06-24▲ WARNING79%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-06-07▲ WARNING50%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2024-06-04▲ WARNING56%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
September 20236 days, 6 flagged
2023-09-08▲ WARNING99%Hitwatch the replay
2023-09-07▲ WARNING99%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-09-06▲ WARNING97%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-09-05▲ WARNING99%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-09-04▲ WARNING93%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-09-01▲ WARNING99%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
August 202311 days, 11 flagged
2023-08-25▲ WARNING63%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-08-24▲ WARNING59%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-08-21▲ WARNING56%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-08-18▲ WARNING70%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-08-17▲ WARNING71%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-08-11▲ WARNING58%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-08-10▲ WARNING98%Hitwatch the replay
2023-08-09▲ WARNING53%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-08-07▲ WARNING90%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-08-03▲ WARNING83%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-08-01▲ WARNING99%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
July 20238 days, 8 flagged
2023-07-31▲ WARNING99%Hitwatch the replay
2023-07-19▲ WARNING56%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-07-18▲ WARNING97%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-07-17▲ WARNING95%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-07-12▲ WARNING95%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-07-10▲ WARNING74%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-07-03▲ WARNING72%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-07-01▲ WARNING74%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
June 20239 days, 9 flagged
2023-06-29▲ WARNING56%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-06-28▲ WARNING66%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-06-27▲ WARNING99%Hitwatch the replay
2023-06-26▲ WARNING99%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-06-20▲ WARNING97%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-06-19▲ WARNING98%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-06-15▲ WARNING92%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-06-11▲ WARNING71%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2023-06-09▲ WARNING80%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
September 20221 day, 0 flagged
2022-09-20◇ CLEAR2%Missthe month peak came on a day we did not flag · watch the replay
August 20222 days, 2 flagged
2022-08-02▲ WARNING53%Hitwatch the replay
2022-08-01▲ WARNING72%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
July 20226 days, 6 flagged
2022-07-20▲ WARNING90%Hitwatch the replay
2022-07-19▲ WARNING89%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2022-07-18▲ WARNING86%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2022-07-12▲ WARNING70%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2022-07-08▲ WARNING63%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2022-07-05▲ WARNING66%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
June 20225 days, 5 flagged
2022-06-23▲ WARNING82%Hitwatch the replay
2022-06-20▲ WARNING83%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2022-06-16▲ WARNING66%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2022-06-12▲ WARNING70%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay
2022-06-11▲ WARNING61%False alarmflagged WARNING+, but the month peaked elsewhere · watch the replay

A hit is a day flagged WARNING or higher that held the month's true peak, graded on official settlements. Live-season rows quote our strongest call that day and grade when the month closes.

Hashed when made. Graded on settlements. Verify the chain · the method · pick your own threshold

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