Peak ledger

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Our call
2%
CLEAR · window 1:00 PM CT–5:00 PM CT
The day
82.4 GW
max at 4:45 PM CT
Outcome
RANK 5
beaten, the month leader is 83.3 GW
What was behind the 2%
Forecast max
80.4 GW
Month max
82.1 GW
Margin
-1.7 GW
Temp anomaly
+0.9 °F
Est. curtailment
1.5 GW
Est. battery
-0.2 GW
p (raw)
8%
p (final)
2%

model mercury-1.0.0 · computed 11:57 PM CT · stress-test these drivers →

This day ranks #5 of 10 observed days this month. Watch the replay → · See the full month ladder →

All values from real ERCOT feeds; calls logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".