Peak ledger
Saturday, July 4, 2026
Our call
◇ 2%
CLEAR · window 1:00 PM CT–5:00 PM CT
The day
82.4 GW
max at 4:45 PM CT
Outcome
RANK 5
beaten, the month leader is 83.3 GW
What was behind the 2%
- Forecast max
- 80.4 GW
- Month max
- 82.1 GW
- Margin
- -1.7 GW
- Temp anomaly
- +0.9 °F
- Est. curtailment
- 1.5 GW
- Est. battery
- -0.2 GW
- p (raw)
- 8%
- p (final)
- 2%
model mercury-1.0.0 · computed 11:57 PM CT · stress-test these drivers →
This day ranks #5 of 10 observed days this month. Watch the replay → · See the full month ladder →
All values from real ERCOT feeds; calls logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".