ERCOTWARNING56% chance today sets August's peak · window 3:00 PM CT–5:00 PM CT

Peak ledger

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Our call
1%
CLEAR · window 3:00 PM CT–5:00 PM CT
the chance the day would set July's peak
The day
83.0 GW
max at 5:15 PM CT
Outcome
RANK 16
beaten, the month leader is 91.2 GW
What was behind the 1%
Forecast max
82.4 GW
Month max
83.3 GW
Margin
-0.9 GW
Temp anomaly
-3.5 °F
Est. curtailment
1.5 GW
Est. battery
-0.2 GW
p (raw)
1%
p (final)
1%

model hybrid-1.1.0 · computed 11:56 PM CT · stress-test these drivers →

This day ranks #16 of 31 observed days this month. Watch the replay → · See the full month ladder →

All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".