ERCOTWARNINGPeak probability 66% today · window 3:00 PM CT–6:00 PM CT

Peak ledger

Monday, July 20, 2026

Our call
66%
WARNING · window 3:00 PM CT–6:00 PM CT
The day
85.6 GW
max at 4:45 PM CT
Outcome
MONTH LEADER
currently holds this month's provisional peak
What was behind the 66%
Forecast max
86.4 GW
Month max
83.3 GW
Margin
3.0 GW
Temp anomaly
-0.3 °F
Est. curtailment
1.5 GW
Est. battery
-0.2 GW
p (raw)
78%
p (final)
66%

model hybrid-1.1.0 · computed 7:51 PM CT · stress-test these drivers →

As of today, Monday holds the month's provisional peak. See the full month ladder →

All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".