ERCOTWARNINGPeak probability 84% today · window 3:00 PM CT–6:00 PM CT

Peak ledger

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Our call
84%
WARNING · window 3:00 PM CT–6:00 PM CT
The day
66.9 GW
max at 12:00 AM CT
Outcome
RANK 20
beaten, the month leader is 85.6 GW
What was behind the 84%
Forecast max
89.1 GW
Month max
85.6 GW
Margin
3.5 GW
Temp anomaly
+2.7 °F
Est. curtailment
1.5 GW
Est. battery
-0.2 GW
p (raw)
91%
p (final)
84%

model hybrid-1.1.0 · computed 8:53 AM CT · stress-test these drivers →

This day ranks #20 of 21 observed days this month. See the full month ladder →

All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".