ERCOTWARNING56% chance today sets August's peak · window 3:00 PM CT–5:00 PM CT

Peak ledger

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Our call
2%
CLEAR · window 3:00 PM CT–6:00 PM CT
the chance the day would set July's peak
The day
89.9 GW
max at 4:50 PM CT
Outcome
RANK 4
beaten, the month leader is 91.2 GW
What was behind the 2%
Forecast max
86.6 GW
Month max
91.3 GW
Margin
-4.8 GW
Temp anomaly
+1.1 °F
Est. curtailment
1.5 GW
Est. battery
-0.2 GW
p (raw)
4%
p (final)
2%

model hybrid-1.1.0 · computed 11:58 PM CT · stress-test these drivers →

This day ranks #4 of 31 observed days this month. Watch the replay → · See the full month ladder →

All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".