Peak ledger

Monday, August 3, 2026

Our call
44%
WATCH · window 3:00 PM CT–6:00 PM CT
the chance the day would set August's peak
The day
87.1 GW
max at 4:30 PM CT
Outcome
RANK 8
beaten, the month leader is 87.1 GW
What was behind the 44%
Forecast max
89.0 GW
Month max
84.5 GW
Margin
4.5 GW
Temp anomaly
+0.4 °F
Est. curtailment
1.5 GW
Est. battery
-0.2 GW
p (raw)
59%
p (final)
44%

model hybrid-1.1.0 · computed 11:59 PM CT · stress-test these drivers →

This day ranks #8 of 17 observed days this month. Watch the replay → · See the full month ladder →

All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".