Peak ledger
Monday, August 3, 2026
Our call
△ 44%
WATCH · window 3:00 PM CT–6:00 PM CT
the chance the day would set August's peak
The day
87.1 GW
max at 4:30 PM CT
Outcome
RANK 8
beaten, the month leader is 87.1 GW
What was behind the 44%
- Forecast max
- 89.0 GW
- Month max
- 84.5 GW
- Margin
- 4.5 GW
- Temp anomaly
- +0.4 °F
- Est. curtailment
- 1.5 GW
- Est. battery
- -0.2 GW
- p (raw)
- 59%
- p (final)
- 44%
model hybrid-1.1.0 · computed 11:59 PM CT · stress-test these drivers →
This day ranks #8 of 17 observed days this month. Watch the replay → · See the full month ladder →
All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".