ERCOTWATCH41% chance today sets August's peak · window 3:00 PM CT–6:00 PM CT

Peak ledger

Monday, August 3, 2026

Our call
41%
WATCH · window 3:00 PM CT–6:00 PM CT
the chance the day would set August's peak
The day
64.1 GW
max at 12:00 AM CT
Outcome
RANK 3
beaten, the month leader is 84.5 GW
What was behind the 41%
Forecast max
89.0 GW
Month max
84.5 GW
Margin
4.5 GW
Temp anomaly
-0.0 °F
Est. curtailment
1.5 GW
Est. battery
-0.2 GW
p (raw)
56%
p (final)
41%

model hybrid-1.1.0 · computed 2:03 AM CT · stress-test these drivers →

This day ranks #3 of 3 observed days this month. See the full month ladder →

All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".