Peak ledger
Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Our call
◇ 22%
CLEAR · window 3:00 PM CT–6:00 PM CT
the chance the day would set August's peak
The day
67.4 GW
max at 12:00 AM CT
Outcome
RANK 4
beaten, the month leader is 87.0 GW
What was behind the 22%
- Forecast max
- 88.9 GW
- Month max
- 87.1 GW
- Margin
- 1.8 GW
- Temp anomaly
- +0.3 °F
- Est. curtailment
- 1.5 GW
- Est. battery
- -0.2 GW
- p (raw)
- 35%
- p (final)
- 22%
model hybrid-1.1.0 · computed 3:10 AM CT · stress-test these drivers →
This day ranks #4 of 4 observed days this month. See the full month ladder →
All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".