ERCOTWARNING56% chance today sets August's peak · window 3:00 PM CT–5:00 PM CT

Peak ledger

Thursday, August 6, 2026

Our call
1%
CLEAR · window 2:00 PM CT–5:00 PM CT
the chance the day would set August's peak
The day
86.3 GW
max at 4:30 PM CT
Outcome
RANK 11
beaten, the month leader is 87.1 GW
What was behind the 1%
Forecast max
87.5 GW
Month max
87.2 GW
Margin
0.3 GW
Temp anomaly
-0.6 °F
Est. curtailment
1.5 GW
Est. battery
-0.2 GW
p (raw)
23%
p (final)
1%

model hybrid-1.1.0 · computed 11:59 PM CT · stress-test these drivers →

This day ranks #11 of 16 observed days this month. Watch the replay → · See the full month ladder →

All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".