Peak ledger
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Our call
◇ 6%
CLEAR · window 2:00 PM CT–5:00 PM CT
the chance the day would set September's peak
The day
68.2 GW
max at 12:00 AM CT
Outcome
RANK 15
beaten, the month leader is 86.7 GW
What was behind the 6%
- Forecast max
- 87.4 GW
- Month max
- 86.8 GW
- Margin
- 0.6 GW
- Temp anomaly
- +1.5 °F
- Est. curtailment
- 1.5 GW
- Est. battery
- -0.2 GW
- p (raw)
- 61%
- p (final)
- 6%
model hybrid-1.1.0 · computed 1:52 AM CT · stress-test these drivers →
This day ranks #15 of 15 observed days this month. See the full month ladder →
All values from real ERCOT feeds. Calls are logged to an append-only hash chain before intervals close (methodology). Free to republish with a link: "Peak data by WattMarkets".